Adoption of Mobile Wallets in Pakistan: Trends, Determinants, and Financial Inclusion Implications (FY2019–FY2025)

Abstract

Mobile wallet adoption is a pivotal tool for achieving financial inclusion in developing countries, but its trend, drivers and consequences in Pakistan have been overlooked. We investigate the trends of mobile wallet adoption in Pakistan between FY2019 and FY2025 adopting a wide range of statistical tools on secondary data obtained from State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Payment Systems Reviews and World Bank Global Findex Database. Using descriptive statistics, Shapiro-Wilk normality tests, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, Pearson and Spearman correlation, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root tests, ARIMA forecasting, Mann-Kendall trend analysis, multiple linear regression, One-Way ANOVA with Tukey HSD post-hoc comparisons, chi-square tests, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), logistic regression, independent samples t-test, and Kruskal-Wallis H Results demonstrate that BB App users grew from 8 million in FY2019 to 72 million in FY2025 (R² = 0.978, p < 0.001), while digital wallet penetration increased from 10.5% to 50.2% (R² = 0.988, p < 0.001). ARIMA projections indicate a penetration rate of about 72% by FY2028. The Mann-Kendall test indicated significant monotonic upward trends for all adoption indicators (Z = 3.004, p = 0.003). Provider-level ANOVA showed significant platform transactional variance with JazzCash and Easypaisa leading the charge. PCA revealed the composite leading driver as broadband penetration, financial literacy and trust (PC1 = 81.10% variance). The post-Raast (instant payment infrastructure) policy effect was significant (t = -3.769, p = 0.013), providing evidence of policy-facilitated acceleration. However, there are significant provincial variations, with Balochistan showing less than half the penetration rate of Punjab. Its findings provide a holistically empirical evaluation of the mobile wallet adoption landscape in Pakistan and policy implications for the acceleration of inclusive digital financial services.

Keywords:

Mobile Wallets, Financial Inclusion, Pakistan, Digital Payments, Bb App, Jazzcash, Easypaisa, Raast, Fintech, Sbp