Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance
type: channel
description: The Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance is a valuable resource for economists, finance professionals, and students alike. This journal provides an up-to-date analysis of the latest economic trends, data, and research from around the world. It also covers topics such as asset pricing, financial engineering, macroeconomics, and microeconomics. With its comprehensive coverage of the field of econometrics and finance, this journal is an invaluable source for anyone looking to stay informed on the latest developments in this field.
publisher: Go Green Pvt. Ltd.
language: en
publication name: Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance
issn: 2959-8982
items: Economics of Modern Low-Cost and High-Volume Warfare: Gamification, Asymmetry, and Policy Adaptation
items: OPEN-ENDED MUTUAL FUNDS AS A TOOL TO STRENGTHEN THE NATIONAL ECONOMY: EVIDENCE FROM PAKISTAN IN THE PROSPECT OF BUDGET – 2026
items: Factors Influencing Adoption of Sustainable Banking Services: A SEM-Based Study
items: Digital Service Quality and Customer Loyalty: A Systematic Review of Trust and Perceived Value in Online Banking
items: ESG DISCLOSURE, GREEN INNOVATION, AND FIRM VALUE NEXUS: EVIDENCE FROM EMERGING MARKETS OF PAKISTAN
items: Psychological Capital as a Driver of Entrepreneurial Satisfaction: Assessing the Mediating Effect of Burnout
items: SDGs Washing vs Genuine Innovation: The Mediating Role of Sustainability Innovation Authenticity and the Moderating Role of Stakeholder Pressure
items: How Do Crude Oil Prices, Exchange Rates, Gold Prices, and Interest Rates Impact Inflation in Pakistan?
items: Decentralized Digital Wallets in Pakistan and the UK: Leveraging Blockchain for Secure, Low-Cost Cross-Border Payments and Financial Inclusion
items: Does Financial Inclusion Outcome is Supporting Formal Borrowing among Individuals
items: Secure Smart Contract Engineering and Software Development Practices for Resilient FinTech Blockchain Systems
items: Digital Transformation in KSA: Assessing the Adoption of Blockchain and Smart Contracts under Vision 2030
items: From Control to Credibility: How Digital Marketing and Strategic Project Management Expose or Mask Organizational Hierarchies
items: https://ajeaf.com/index.php/Journal/article/view/325
items: Volatility Repercussion on Shariah and non-Shariah Stock Market Indices for India and Pakistan through ARCH & GARCH Techniques
items: Socioeconomic Determinants of Female Educational Attainment in Pakistan: Stage-Specific Evidence from a Multinomial Logit Analysis
items: Does the Marshall-Learner Condition Hold for Pakistan? Exchange Rate Elasticity, and the Long-Run Determinants of Export Earnings
items: Technological Innovation in FinTech and Its Role in Advancing Financial Inclusion: A Comprehensive Literature Review
items: An Analysis of the Macroeconomic, Structural, and Institutional Factors Affecting Tax Revenue in Pakistan: Evidence from an ARDL Model
items: Effect of the Role of Institutions and Exchange Rate Volatility on Tax Revenue in Pakistan
items: An Examination of Artificial Intelligence and Risk Management in Financial Institutions
items: Corporate Responsibility and Organizational Culture as Strategic Drivers of Employee Commitment: Evidence from Riyadh’s Destination Management Companies
items: Ownership Structure, Audit Quality, And The Governance–Performance Nexus: Dynamic Panel Evidence
items: FinTech Adoption under Perceived Risk: The Mediating and Moderating Role of Trust, Usefulness, and Digital Literacy
items: Impact of Net Export on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Pakistan
items: Do Remittances Promote or Constrain Growth? Evidence from South Asian Economies
items: Credit Risk and Bank Performance in Emerging Markets. A Dual Protocol Systematic Review with Evidence from Pakistan
items: Forecasting Pakistan Stock Returns Using Economic Policy Uncertainty: Deep Learning Evidence from an Emerging Market
items: Internal Control Effectiveness as a Moderator in the Relationship Between Corporate Social Responsibility and Firms' Financial Performance: Evidence from Pakistan
items: Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), Consumer Trust, and Financial Performance: A Triangular Model of Management–Marketing–Finance Integration

Economics of Modern Low-Cost and High-Volume Warfare: Gamification, Asymmetry, and Policy Adaptation
type: item
description: The increasing nature of modern warfare lies in the juxtaposition between cheap attack systems and expensive defense systems, which are fueled by the increasing prevalence of gamification of simulation ecosystems in which faster learning processes take place. This study shows that the combination of low-cost and high-volume offensive systems with game-based simulation creates a unique operational logic: cost-exchange disparities may be exploited by attackers while leveraging gamified simulation environments to quickly iterate tactics, speeding up the OODA loop process and increasing efficiency. Using thematic case analysis, comparative cost analysis, and a stylized theoretical model based on historical instances of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict (2025-2026), Ukraine conflict (2022-2025), China's artificial intelligence-enabled wargaming, and Israel's defensive simulations, the study explains how massed low-cost attacks place undue economic pressure on the defender while the gamified simulation system is used by attackers to learn and innovate their tactics. In light of these findings, policymakers are advised to purchase more defense systems like electronic warfare systems, directed-energy weapons, and area-denial capabilities, adopt simulation programs across force structures, and establish guidelines for the use of autonomous and gamified systems. Concluding with limitations and future research avenues, the paper emphasizes the need for collecting microdata, randomized training evaluation, and theater-by-theater comparative experimentation. Keywords: Low-cost Warfare; Gamification; Drones; Simulation; Asymmetric Escalation; US-Israel and Iran Conflict. JEL Codes: H56; D74; L86; F51; Z13
subject: Articles
  topic: section
creator: Hidayat Ullah Khan*
creator: Javed Anwar
creator: Muhammad Zaib
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance
date: 2026-05-23
publication date: 2026-05-23
starting page: 571
ending page: 588
doi: 10.5281/zenodo.20354861

OPEN-ENDED MUTUAL FUNDS AS A TOOL TO STRENGTHEN THE NATIONAL ECONOMY: EVIDENCE FROM PAKISTAN IN THE PROSPECT OF BUDGET – 2026
type: item
description: The aim of this study is to explore the contribution of open - ended mutual funds in the improvement of Pakistan's national economy under the context of the Budget 2026. The paper investigates the relationship between the performance of mutual funds (measured as Net Asset Value (NAV) changes) and the macroeconomic variables such as gold prices, oil prices, exchange rate, and inflation, using time-series data over 12 years from 2010-2022. The ARDL model is used to capture the short run and long run dynamics. The findings suggest that the depreciation of exchange rates and inflation have both strong negative impacts on NAV, whereas gold prices have strong positive hedging effects. Oil prices have an ambivalent effect.The study has established the long-run cointegration of the variables and recommended that open-ended mutual funds are capable of functioning as the stabilizer of the economic growth. Policy recommendations are consistent with the priorities of Pakistan's Budget 2026
subject: Articles
  topic: section
creator: Dr. Mehwish Bhatti
creator: Syed Ismail Shah
creator: Quratulain Mahoto
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance
date: 2026-05-22
publication date: 2026-05-22
starting page: 566
ending page: 570
doi: 10.63075/gnsrnj58

Factors Influencing Adoption of Sustainable Banking Services: A SEM-Based Study
type: item
description: This study examined the factors influencing the adoption of sustainable banking services using a structural equation modelling (SEM) approach. In recent years, financial institutions have increasingly introduced sustainable banking practices aimed at promoting environmentally responsible and socially inclusive financial services. Despite growing availability, customer adoption of these services remains limited, particularly in developing economies where awareness and trust in financial innovations vary significantly. The study proposed and tested a conceptual model in which awareness, perceived benefits, trust in banks, and digital banking ease were considered as independent variables influencing sustainable banking adoption. Adoption intention was examined as a mediating variable, while actual usage behavior served as the dependent variable. The study adopted a quantitative research design, and data were collected through a structured questionnaire using a five-point Likert scale. A sample of respondents familiar with banking services was targeted to ensure relevance to the research objectives. Structural equation modelling (SEM) was employed to analyse the relationships among variables and to assess both direct and indirect effects within the proposed framework. The findings indicated that awareness of sustainable banking services significantly influenced adoption intention, highlighting the importance of knowledge dissemination. Perceived benefits and trust in banks were also found to play critical roles in shaping users’ willingness to adopt such services. Additionally, digital banking ease emerged as a significant predictor, suggesting that user-friendly digital platforms enhance acceptance of sustainable financial products. The mediating role of adoption intention was confirmed, demonstrating that behavioral intention acts as a key mechanism through which cognitive and perceptual factors translate into actual usage behavior. Overall, the study concluded that i…
subject: Articles
  topic: section
subject:
  topic: keywords
  value: Sustainable Banking Services, Adoption Intention, Usage Behavior, Digital Banking Ease, Trust in Banks, Perceived Benefits, Awareness, Sustainable Finance, Banking Technology Adoption, Structural Equation Modelling (SEM), Consumer Behavior, Green Banking, Financial Technology, Karachi Banking Sector.
creator: Mohammed Omer Rafique
creator: Javed Hussain
creator: Syed Meeran Hasnain
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance
date: 2026-05-22
publication date: 2026-05-22
starting page: 554
ending page: 561
doi: 10.63075/dznm1617

Digital Service Quality and Customer Loyalty: A Systematic Review of Trust and Perceived Value in Online Banking
type: item
description: Purpose: The objective of this systematic review is to summarize empirical findings from the last two years (2024–2026) regarding the relationships between digital service quality, trust, perceived value and customer loyalty in online banking. It looks at the effects of the dimensions of electronic service quality – both directly and indirectly – on loyalty, through the cognitive and affective mechanisms of trust and perceived value. Design/Methodology: section outlines the methods used to identify peer-reviewed studies from the last three years (from 2024 to 2026) from the following databases: Scopus, Web of Science, ScienceDirect, SpringerLink, MDPI, SAGE, and Emerald. Twenty-eight empirical and review studies were found relevant for the thematic synthesis process following screening in line with PRISMA. Findings: reliability, security, privacy, website design, and responsiveness, which all are important factors in determining loyalty. Trust and perceived value are two mediating variables: Trust provides a bridge between the statements of service quality and the commitment, whereas perceived value provides a bridge between the functional and emotional benefits and the continuance intention and recommendation. In the recent 2025–2026 literature, Artificial Intelligence (AI) is emerging as a new construct that either dampens or amplifies the relationship between quality and loyalty.In the recent 2025–2026 literature, a new construct that is emerging to moderate or strengthen the linkage between quality and loyalty is Artificial Intelligence (AI). Originality: This review aims to present an updated integrative framework for both scholars and practitioners, by focusing only on the most recent research period (2024-2026) and the adaptation of online banking research to the new context of online banking that is becoming more digital, hyper-personalized, and reliant on AI to build trust, this review reflects the new post-pandemic reorientation of online banking research.
subject: Articles
  topic: section
subject: Digital Service Quality; Online Banking; Customer Loyalty; Trust; Perceived Value; Systematic Review; E-Loyalty; Fintech.
  topic: keywords
creator: Muhammad Tayyab Kashif
creator: Junaid Babar
creator: Sajjad Haider Khan
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance
date: 2026-05-21
publication date: 2026-05-21
starting page: 560
ending page: 565
doi: 10.63075/jrq5cw37

ESG DISCLOSURE, GREEN INNOVATION, AND FIRM VALUE NEXUS: EVIDENCE FROM EMERGING MARKETS OF PAKISTAN
type: item
description: This study examines the relationship between Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) disclosure, green innovation, and firm value in the context of non-financial firms listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). The primary objective is to investigate whether ESG disclosure enhances firm value directly and indirectly through green innovation as a mediating mechanism. Grounded in Stakeholder Theory and the Resource-Based View, the study adopts a quantitative, explanatory research design using panel data from 120 firms over the period 2019–2024. ESG disclosure is measured through a composite disclosure index, green innovation is proxied by R&D-based environmental innovation indicators, and firm value is assessed using Tobin’s Q along with financial performance measures. The data are analyzed using descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, multiple regression, and mediation analysis. The empirical results reveal that ESG disclosure has a significant positive impact on both green innovation and firm value. In addition, green innovation significantly enhances firm value, indicating that environmentally responsible innovation contributes to improved market valuation and financial performance. Mediation analysis further confirms that green innovation partially mediates the relationship between ESG disclosure and firm value, suggesting that ESG practices create economic value both directly and through innovation-driven mechanisms. These findings highlight the strategic importance of sustainability disclosure and innovation integration in emerging markets. The study contributes to the literature on sustainable finance by providing evidence from Pakistan, an under-researched emerging economy characterized by evolving ESG frameworks and limited green innovation adoption. It offers practical insights for corporate managers, investors, and policymakers regarding the value-enhancing role of ESG-oriented strategies.
subject: Articles
  topic: section
creator: Muhammad Jawad Gohar
creator: Dr. Mahboob Ullah
creator: Dr. Zeeshan Khan
creator: Raja Abdul Wahab
creator: Fatimah Ather
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance
date: 2026-05-20
publication date: 2026-05-20
starting page: 551
ending page: 559
doi: 10.5281/zenodo.20344893

Psychological Capital as a Driver of Entrepreneurial Satisfaction: Assessing the Mediating Effect of Burnout
type: item
description: Although ample research has explored the role of Psychological Capital (PsyCap) in positive outcomes and well-being, little research has been conducted in the context of entrepreneurs with limited resources, applying the perspective of Conservation of Resources (COR) Theory. Addressing the research gap, this study aims to investigate the relationship between PsyCap and satisfaction, and how burnout serves as a mediator among entrepreneurs in Sindh, Pakistan. A quantitative cross-sectional survey gathered data from 315 entrepreneurs in major urban areas of Sindh. The data were run through Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) in SmartPLS 4 for model validation and testing hypotheses. The findings demonstrate that PsyCap has a positive and significant relationship with entrepreneurial satisfaction. However, PsyCap diminishes burnout significantly. Burnout decreases the satisfaction of entrepreneurs by depleting important resources due to persistent stress. It is observed that burnout mediates partially; however, higher PsyCap resources restore entrepreneurs’ energy and motivation, and these positive resources are used in the present and future to safeguard from adverse burnout effects and enhance entrepreneurial satisfaction and well-being. Thus, this study highlights the importance of fostering positive psychological resources, such as hope, optimism, resilience, and efficacy, for handling stress and achieving greater entrepreneurial satisfaction. Keywords: Psychological Capital, Entrepreneurial Satisfaction, Burnout
subject: Articles
  topic: section
creator: Dr. Sarfraz Ali Malak
creator: Saeed Ahmed
creator: Dr. Tayyaba Gul
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance
date: 2026-05-19
publication date: 2026-05-19
starting page: 537
ending page: 550
doi: 10.63075/g4wf2y86

SDGs Washing vs Genuine Innovation: The Mediating Role of Sustainability Innovation Authenticity and the Moderating Role of Stakeholder Pressure
type: item
description: This study addresses the rising issue that firms may publicly align with the SDGs while lacking authentic sustainability innovation, thereby creating a gap between corporate sustainability claims and substantive organizational practices. Thus, this study examines the twofold consequences of corporate sustainability practices by distinguishing between genuine innovation and SDG washing. It also examines how sustainability innovation authenticity mediates the relationship and stakeholder pressure moderates it, offering critical insight into the effectiveness of corporate sustainability initiatives. A quantitative research design was adopted, in which primary data were gathered from 450 managers and sustainability professionals in the Pakistani textile industry. A purposive sampling technique was used to target firms engaged in sustainability practices. Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) was applied to test the mediation and moderation relationships. Corporate sustainability practice can have two outcomes: a huge improvement in both authentic innovation and SDG washing. The authenticity of sustainability innovation is the most critical mediating factor, as it enables sustainability innovation and reduces SDG washing. Moreover, the relationship between sustainability practices and authenticity is strengthened through stakeholder pressure, which can motivate companies to take more substantive actions regarding sustainability. This study is relevant to the literature because of its critical analysis of companies' sustainability practices, which goes beyond perceived advantages. The study introduces the concept of sustainability innovation authenticity as a key mechanism for differentiating between substantive and symbolic practices, integrating Institutional Theory and Legitimacy Theory. The results would be beneficial for researchers and practitioners who want to build more effective and credible sustainability initiatives
subject: Articles
  topic: section
creator: Farah Shaikh
creator: Sonia Baloch
creator: Geeta
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance
date: 2026-05-16
publication date: 2026-05-16
starting page: 521
ending page: 536
doi: 10.63075/t1mc6154

How Do Crude Oil Prices, Exchange Rates, Gold Prices, and Interest Rates Impact Inflation in Pakistan?
type: item
description: The purpose of this study is to examine the macroeconomic factors driving inflation in Pakistan from 1990 to 2024, particularly the effects of crude oil prices, exchange rate devaluation, gold prices, and interest rate changes on inflation. The study uses a Structural Equation Model (SEM) to examine the direct and indirect effects of global commodity prices and monetary conditions on domestic prices. To capture large external regime changes, two binary structural dummy variables are included: a COVID-19 shock dummy (2019–2021) and a Russia-Ukraine geopolitical tension dummy (2022–ongoing). Money supply growth and trade openness are among the control variables. Based on annual data from the World Development Indicators (WDI), International Financial Statistics (IFS), and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the SEM path analysis indicates that the two largest direct influences on inflation are the interest rate and the exchange rate. The positive effects of crude oil on the exchange rate and gold prices have a strong indirect impact on inflation. The other significant and negative factor is trade openness, which indicates the import-cost channel. The structural dummies have mixed coefficients, indicating that policy interventions during the crisis period suppress inflationary pressures in both cases. The findings confirm the preeminence of external macroeconomic variables in determining inflation in Pakistan and offer some empirical lessons for policy.
subject: Articles
  topic: section
creator: Dr. Ghulam Ghouse
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance
date: 2026-03-21
publication date: 2026-03-21
starting page: 1921
ending page: 1930
doi: 10.63075/e948ka93

Decentralized Digital Wallets in Pakistan and the UK: Leveraging Blockchain for Secure, Low-Cost Cross-Border Payments and Financial Inclusion
type: item
description: This study explores the role of decentralized digital wallets and blockchain technology in enhancing cross-border payments and financial inclusion, with a focus on Pakistan and the UK. Through semi-structured interviews with 22 participants, including banking professionals, fintech experts, and users of digital wallets, the study examines the benefits, challenges, and potential of blockchain in both developed and developing economies. The findings reveal that while blockchain has the potential to reduce transaction costs and improve the security of cross-border payments, significant differences exist in perceptions and trust between Pakistan and the UK. Participants from the UK demonstrated higher trust in blockchain technology due to a more developed financial ecosystem, while participants from Pakistan expressed concerns about security, regulatory uncertainty, and limited financial literacy. The research highlights the need for improved financial literacy, regulatory clarity, and infrastructure development to foster the adoption of decentralized digital wallets in Pakistan. The study also provides valuable insights into the potential of blockchain to drive financial inclusion in emerging markets. Keywords: Decentralized Digital Wallets, Blockchain Technology, Cross-Border Payments, Financial Inclusion, Emerging Markets
subject: Articles
  topic: section
creator: *Farah Arzu
creator: Syeda Iqra Amjad
creator: Fawad Ahmad Abbasi
creator: Dr. Kashif Abrar
creator: Samad Wasi
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance
date: 2026-05-15
publication date: 2026-05-15
starting page: 507
ending page: 520
doi: 10.63075/yg300g07

Does Financial Inclusion Outcome is Supporting Formal Borrowing among Individuals
type: item
description: This study examines whether financial inclusion outcomes support formal borrowing in South Asia using Global Findex microdata for 2,591 adults who reported borrowing. Formal borrowing is the dependent variable, while bank account ownership and mobile money account ownership are the main inclusion indicators. Logit models are estimated for the full sample and across gender and urban–rural groups. The results show that bank account ownership is strongly and consistently associated with a higher likelihood of formal borrowing. Mobile money accounts also support formal borrowing, but the effect is weaker and more evident among men and urban residents. Age, income, labour force status and country context further shape borrowing outcomes. Overall, financial inclusion promotes formal borrowing, but access alone is not sufficient. Policies must strengthen enabling conditions so that inclusion translates into meaningful engagement with regulated credit.
subject: Articles
  topic: section
creator: Waqas Shair
creator: Sadia Hameed
creator: Farzana Tabbasum
creator: Badar un Nisa
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance
date: 2026-05-14
publication date: 2026-05-14
starting page: 487
ending page: 498
doi: 10.63075/3wraga50

Secure Smart Contract Engineering and Software Development Practices for Resilient FinTech Blockchain Systems
type: item
description: FinTechs have been moving to blockchain to automate financial processes, enhance auditability, and decrease the use of manual intermediaries. Smart contracts make this automation possible, by encoding business rules into executable code, but their design flaws, lax secure coding discipline and limited organizational readiness can turn automation into systemic risk. The paper will explore the role of smart contract security engineering, software development maturity in ensuring secure and scalable blockchain implementation in FinTech. The study combines the principles of Secure Software Development Life Cycle (SSDLC) with the principles of Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE) perspective and empirically tests the offered model with the help of quantitative, cross-sectional design. Data are gathered among professionals involved in FinTech and software development practices in Pakistan and evaluated with the help of Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM). The findings indicate that maturity of software development has the highest level of association with blockchain adoption and implementation success ( 0.75), followed by technology department capability ( 0.40) and security engineering and scalability readiness reinforce overall architectural maturity and mitigate exposure to cyber risk. Model analysis shows that it was adequately fitting (SRMR = 0.09) with moderate explanatory power on the outcome construct (R 2 = 0.66). The results have shown that resilient FinTech blockchain systems rely not only on the underlying blockchain platform, but also on disciplined engineering processes and institutional capability. Future research can build on the framework by including behavioral and governance variables and testing the model in various regions to enhance generalizability.
subject: Articles
  topic: section
subject:
  topic: keywords
  value: Smart Contract Engineering, Fintech Software Engineering, Blockchain Security, Secure SDLC, Technology–Organization–Environment, Scalability Engineering, Cyber Risk, Secure Software Development Practices
creator: Edimer Mahecha Contreras
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance
date: 2026-05-15
publication date: 2026-05-15
starting page: 499
ending page: 506
doi: 10.63075/9d7jxm65

Digital Transformation in KSA: Assessing the Adoption of Blockchain and Smart Contracts under Vision 2030
type: item
description: Background: Within the framework of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, the Kingdom is prioritizing digitalized citizen services, including secure e-government payment systems. However, adoption rates remain suboptimal due to factors related to user trust and technological familiarity. Hypothesis: This research tests the implications of blockchain-enforced identity management, smart contracts, and cybersecurity protocols on e-government payment adoption through the mediating role of perceived security of digital transactions. Methods: A quantitative study using structural equation modeling (SEM) in SmartPLS 4 was conducted with a sample of 500 Saudi Arabian citizens. Constructs were tested in terms of reliability, validity, and the mediation effect. Findings: Smart contract implementation had the most significant direct impact on adoption, followed by blockchain identity and cybersecurity protocols. Perceived security acted as a partial mediator in the adoption of smart contracts. The model demonstrated significant predictive power. Conclusion: Technological innovation alone is insufficient for mass adoption; it must be coupled with user trust. The study highlights that perceived security is the critical mechanism translating FinTech infrastructure into citizen adoption. These insights offer actionable guidance for policymakers and developers tasked with realizing the digital governance goals of Vision 2030.
subject: Articles
  topic: section
creator: Muhammad Fahad Malik
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance
date: 2026-04-05
publication date: 2026-04-05
starting page: 467
ending page: 486
doi: 10.5281/zenodo.20186189

From Control to Credibility: How Digital Marketing and Strategic Project Management Expose or Mask Organizational Hierarchies
type: item
description: Organizational failure is mainly a human phenomenon as opposed to technological. This paper explores the structural processes by which dysfunctional internal hierarchies trigger organizational decay, especially how digital marketing behaviors mask, but do not fix, dysfunction, and how Strategic Project Management (SPM) is a tool of organizational visibility. Using a mixed-methods design, involving 35 organizations during 18 months (January 2025 March 2026), survey data of 102 professionals, and in-depth interviews of 45 organizational heads, this study proves that 68 per cent of project failures can be explained by internal political factors, namely, favoritism, resources hoarding, and talent suppression, with only 32 per cent Companies that had a high Hierarchy Transparency Index (HTI) score (more than 70) had a 78 percent project success rate, retained 89 percent of high performing talent in a three-year horizon, and had 12.4x digital marketing returns on investment. Low-HTI organizations (less than 50) on the other hand had a 41 percent project success rate, retained talent at only 34 percent and a paltry 3.2 times marketing ROI. To describe the four steps between improper leadership appointment and organizational degeneration, a theoretical model is proposed, which is called the Insecurity Cycle. The paper also suggests two practical tools as the Hierarchy Transparency Index (HTI) and Equity-Led Governance Model to assist in diagnostic and corrective action of the organization. The results of the exemplar organizations (Microsoft, Google, Nestle, and Unilever) validate that the transparent, fair hierarchical systems are the keystone to the credibility of the brand, the success of the project, and the long-term performance.
subject: Articles
  topic: section
subject: organizational hierarchy; strategic project management; digital marketing credibility; talent suppression; brand authenticity; insecurity cycle; hierarchy transparency index
  topic: keywords
creator: Usman Rehmat
creator: Sumaira Rasheed
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance
date: 2026-05-12
publication date: 2026-05-12
starting page: 460
ending page: 466

https://ajeaf.com/index.php/Journal/article/view/325
type: item
title: From Industry 4.0 To Industry 5.0: The Role of Green HRM, Hybrid Work Systems, And Ethical Ai Governance in Achieving Sustainable Organizational Performance in Saudi Arabia’s Pilgrim Facilitation Sector
description: This study looks at how companies in Saudi Arabia that help pilgrims and tourists can perform better by going green and using smart technology. We focused on private firms in the Kingdom and asked 280 employees how they manage their teams and tech. The results are quite clear. When these companies use "Green HRM", which basically means training staff to care about the environment, they see a big jump in their overall sustainability. We also found that hybrid work models aren't just a trend; they actually help these firms stay resilient and eco-friendly by being more flexible. On top of that, using AI in an ethical way makes a huge difference. If the software used for logistics or crowd control is fair and transparent, the whole organization runs better. Essentially, if a firm wants to succeed today, it can't just focus on money. It needs to balance its people, its remote work setups, and its digital ethics all at once. By doing this, these Saudi firms are moving toward a more human-centered and sustainable future, perfectly hitting the goals of the transition from Industry 4.0 to 5.0.
subject: Articles
  topic: section
creator: Dr. Aftab Alam Khan
creator: Junaid Ahmad
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance
date: 2026-05-12
publication date: 2026-05-12
starting page: 451
ending page: 459
doi: 10.63075/rt26d863

Volatility Repercussion on Shariah and non-Shariah Stock Market Indices for India and Pakistan through ARCH & GARCH Techniques
type: item
description: The object of this paper is to examine the volatility repercussion of Shariah and non-Shariah stock market indices of India and Pakistan stock exchanges with the help of non-parametric approaches. The motivation is to examine the risk return trade off between Islamic and conventional stock market indices considering the perspective of investors portfolios. This study measures the performance of Shariah and non-Shariah stock market indices in the context of India and Pakistan stock exchanges. Collection of the secondary source data is from the period of January 03, 2011 to December 29, 2023 respectively with daily frequency. Examining the volatility of both indices for each market is checked through different techniques including risk and return analysis, ARCH and GARCH models. The results intimate that Nifty50 (Non-Shariah) index performs better than its counterparts, i.e. Nifty 50 Shariah index in the Indian stock market, whereas KMI-30 (Shariah) index outperforms to KSE-30 (non-Shariah) index in Pakistan stock exchange. Additionally, volatility repercussion for Indian market especially for Nifty50 Shariah index is high in terms of risk return trade off but Pakistan stock exchange for KMI-30 index applies the strategy of high risk and high return than its KSE-30 (conventional) index. The study could be expanded to macroeconomic variables, other capital markets particularly for Asian markets and panel studies on the selected countries. This study has practical implications particularly to investors, regulatory bodies, financial analysts and potential researchers to make comparison for the performance of Shariah and non-Shariah stock market indices in terms of risk and return trade off. This paper is the first ever study to assess volatility repercussion of Shariah and non-Shariah stock market indices in the context of India and Pakistan stock exchanges.
subject: Articles
  topic: section
creator: Dr. Sarfaraz Nawaz Khatri
creator: Dr. Muhammad Aqil
creator: Dr. Asif Ali Abro
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance
date: 2026-05-12
publication date: 2026-05-12
starting page: 442
ending page: 450
doi: 10.63075/xbzvh010

Socioeconomic Determinants of Female Educational Attainment in Pakistan: Stage-Specific Evidence from a Multinomial Logit Analysis
type: item
description: Gender disparities in educational attainment remain a defining structural impediment to human capital formation in South Asia. Despite constitutional commitments to universal schooling, Pakistan exhibits severe and cumulative female attrition across every educational transition, with tertiary participation among women among the lowest in the region. This study investigates the socioeconomic and demographic determinants of female educational attainment using nationally representative household data from the Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement (PSLM) Survey 2018–19 (N = 22,314 female respondents). A multinomial logistic regression framework models female educational outcomes across five hierarchical categories—primary, middle, secondary, higher secondary, and higher education—with higher education as the reference category. Six predictors are examined: age, residential region, marital status, annual household income, distance from institution, and educational expenditure. Results reveal that educational expenditure is the most pervasive barrier, exercising significant negative effects across three of four educational comparisons. Rural residence exerts an intensifying constraint that peaks at the higher secondary to tertiary transition. Household income becomes a binding and significant determinant specifically from the secondary level onward, while marital status constrains progression at the middle level only and distance matters exclusively at the tertiary threshold. These stage-specific findings carry direct implications for targeted scholarship design, rural institutional investment, and early marriage legislation in Pakistan. The 2018–19 data constitutes the most recent nationally representative provincial-level PSLM/HIES release with complete income, expenditure, and distance modules; the forthcoming HIES 2024–25 microdata will enable post-COVID comparison in future work.
subject: Articles
  topic: section
creator: Aroosa Andleeb
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance
date: 2026-03-21
publication date: 2026-03-21
starting page: 1912
ending page: 1920
doi: 10.63075/2fjq6196

Does the Marshall-Learner Condition Hold for Pakistan? Exchange Rate Elasticity, and the Long-Run Determinants of Export Earnings
type: item
description: Pakistan's external sector is characterised by persistent current account deficits, chronic exchange rate pressure, and a structurally narrow export base that has failed to keep pace with regional competitors over four decades. This study examines the short-run and long-run macroeconomic determinants of Pakistan's export earnings over the period 1976–2019, focusing on four theoretically motivated drivers: the nominal exchange rate (ER), foreign direct investment (FDI), domestic inflation (INF), and real GDP per capita growth (GDP). Annual time-series data from the World Development Indicators are analysed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration (Pesaran et al., 2001), supplemented by an error correction model (ECM), pairwise Granger causality tests, and a full suite of residual diagnostics including serial correlation, heteroskedasticity, and CUSUM parameter-stability tests. The bounds test yields an F-statistic of 11.330, far exceeding the 1% upper critical bound, establishing a robust long-run cointegrating relationship. Long-run estimates show that exchange rate depreciation is the dominant driver of export earnings, with an elasticity of 1.521 — a finding consistent with the Marshall-Lerner condition holding for Pakistan over the full sample. Inflation enters positively but modestly, reflecting the nominal exchange rate transmission channel. FDI and GDP are individually insignificant in the long run, a result attributed to the sectoral concentration of FDI in Pakistan's non-tradable infrastructure and energy sectors. A novel finding is the oscillating short-run FDI dynamic — positive contemporaneously, negative at lags one and two, and positive again at lag three — consistent with an investment gestation period in which newly committed FDI initially draws in capital-goods imports before activating export capacity. The ECT coefficient of −0.388 implies adjustment toward equilibrium at approximately 39% per annum. G…
subject: Articles
  topic: section
creator: Aroosa Andleeb
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance
date: 2026-05-11
publication date: 2026-05-11
starting page: 429
ending page: 441
doi: 10.63075/yqzhyx85

Technological Innovation in FinTech and Its Role in Advancing Financial Inclusion: A Comprehensive Literature Review
type: item
description: Financial technology (FinTech) has significantly transformed the structure and delivery of modern financial services by introducing innovative digital solutions that improve accessibility, affordability, transparency, and operational efficiency within financial systems. Over the last decade, technological advancement has accelerated the digitalization of banking, lending, payments, investment management, and insurance services across developed and developing economies. Innovations such as mobile banking, digital wallets, blockchain systems, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and big data analytics have changed the way individuals and businesses interact with financial institutions and financial markets (Arora, 2024; Chang et al., 2024). that enhance access to financial services, especially for underserved and financially excluded populations. This literature review critically examines the relationship between technological innovation in FinTech and financial inclusion by synthesizing contemporary academic and policy-oriented literature. The review explores major FinTech technologies including digital payments, blockchain, artificial intelligence, big data analytics, mobile banking, cloud computing, and open banking systems. It further evaluates theoretical foundations such as the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT), Innovation Diffusion Theory, and the Technology–Organization–Environment (TOE) framework. The review identifies how FinTech innovations improve accessibility, affordability, efficiency, and convenience of financial services while simultaneously creating new challenges related to regulation, cyber security, digital literacy, consumer protection, and digital inequality. The findings reveal that FinTech significantly contributes to financial inclusion through digital payment systems, mobile money, digital lending, peer-to-peer financing, crowd funding, and AI-driven credit scoring models. Howe…
subject: Articles
  topic: section
creator: Osama Bin Shahid
creator: Muhammad Tayyab Kashif
creator: Asad Javed
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance
date: 2026-05-09
publication date: 2026-05-09
starting page: 410
ending page: 428
doi: 10.5281/zenodo.20099589

An Analysis of the Macroeconomic, Structural, and Institutional Factors Affecting Tax Revenue in Pakistan: Evidence from an ARDL Model
type: item
description: This paper investigates the key macroeconomic, structural, demographic and institutional determinants of Pakistan's tax-to-GDP ratio. The country continues to be financially constrained despite being relatively under-taxed, thus warrants a closer inspection of the tax determinants for the country. This research is followed time series data over the years from 1990 to 2024 was used in the study. The study employed the popular Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing methodology to test for the presence of a long-run relationship and short-run dynamics among the series. The unit root tests indicate mixed levels of integration among the variables thus validating the use of the cointegration bounds test approach in the context. The study made three models to avoid the multicollinearity issues among variable. This allows the study to understand macroeconomic, structural and institutional factors. From the bounds test, the research found that there is a long-run relationship in all models. In the long run, levels of per capita income, level of democracy, inflation, control of corruption, labor force, male labor force and urbanization and have impacting positively on tax-to-GDP ratio. While the agriculture share in GDP, age dependency ratio and income inequality have negative effects. In the short run, the variables display persistent effects with adjustment to the long run. The diagnostic and stability tests indicate efficiency and stability of the models. The findings imply that strengthening the institutional framework, pursuing structural macroeconomic policy initiatives, and expanding the urban formal sector can help improve the country's tax potential in the long run. JEL Classification: H20; H26; E62; O23; C22.
subject: Articles
  topic: section
creator: Muhammad Ali Abrar
creator: Muhammad Azmat Hayat
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance
date: 2026-05-09
publication date: 2026-05-09
starting page: 386
ending page: 409
doi: 10.5281/zenodo.20095674

Effect of the Role of Institutions and Exchange Rate Volatility on Tax Revenue in Pakistan
type: item
description: Pakistan has been one of the fragile economies facing the danger of default after events like COVID-19, post COVID-19 developments, Russia and Ukraine war. Ever-rising debt and soaring public expenditure (mainly interest payments) have almost made it impossible for the country to run day-to-day business. The root of this agony lies in the low level of tax revenue by the government. Tax collection performance has been dismal in case of Pakistan and exchange rate volatility has added to the misery of Government. By employing ARDL and measuring exchange rate volatility through standard deviation the current study found the role of exchange rate volatility to be significantly damaging the tax collection efforts. This damaging effect can be marginalized by better institutional performance. The study suggests steps should be taken to address volatility and improve the institutional performance so that the Government will be able to collect more revenue and avoid danger of default and have enough resources to spend on education and health.
subject: Articles
  topic: section
creator: Farhatullah
creator: Muhammad Ali Kakar
rights: Copyright (c) 2024 Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance
date: 2024-12-31
publication date: 2024-12-31
starting page: 83
ending page: 94
doi: 10.63075/2amahq17

An Examination of Artificial Intelligence and Risk Management in Financial Institutions
type: item
description: Artificial Intelligence (AI) has transformed the operations of financial institutions by improving efficiency, accuracy, and decision-making processes in risk management. Financial institutions such as banks, insurance companies, and investment firms increasingly use AI technologies to identify, assess, monitor, and control financial risks. This study examines the relationship between artificial intelligence and risk management in financial institutions. The article explores how AI technologies including machine learning, predictive analytics, natural language processing, and automation contribute to fraud detection, credit scoring, cybersecurity, regulatory compliance, and operational risk management. The study also investigates the challenges associated with AI adoption such as ethical concerns, algorithmic bias, data privacy, transparency, and regulatory issues. A qualitative research methodology based on secondary data analysis has been adopted to examine recent literature, case studies, and reports related to AI applications in finance. The findings indicate that AI significantly enhances the speed and accuracy of risk assessment while reducing operational costs and human errors. However, the absence of clear regulatory frameworks and ethical governance creates challenges for financial institutions. The study concludes that AI has become an essential tool for modern risk management practices, but organizations must develop balanced strategies that combine technological advancement with ethical and regulatory considerations. The research contributes to understanding the growing role of AI in financial risk management and provides recommendations for future implementation and policy development.
subject: Articles
  topic: section
subject: Artificial Intelligence, Risk Management, Financial Institutions, Machine Learning, Fraud Detection, Financial Technology, Cybersecurity, Predictive Analytics, Banking Sector, Automation
  topic: keywords
creator: Sunain Qamar
creator: Sania Zehra
creator: Muhammad Rizwan
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance
date: 2025-07-20
publication date: 2025-07-20
starting page: 275
ending page: 283
doi: 10.5281/zenodo.20306842

Corporate Responsibility and Organizational Culture as Strategic Drivers of Employee Commitment: Evidence from Riyadh’s Destination Management Companies
type: item
description: Riyadh’s tourism sector undergoes rapid transformation. This study investigates the critical drivers of workforce loyalty within Destination Management Companies (DMCs) in Saudi Arabia. Specifically, the research examines the impact of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and Organizational Culture on Organizational Commitment. Global competition for talent necessitates a deeper understanding of these variables. The study employed quantitative, cross-sectional survey design. Exactly 160 professionals operating in Riyadh’s DMC sector provided primary data. The methodology utilized established, validated academic scales and processed the results through multiple regression analysis in SPSS. The empirical results reveal a profound shift in management dynamics. The research identifies Corporate Social Responsibility as the dominant predictor of employee loyalty. The regression model explains exactly 78.6% of the variance in commitment levels. Statistical testing confirms a massive, positive relationship between social signaling and workforce dedication (B = 0.879, p < 0.001). Conversely, the analysis officially rejects the independent significance of Organizational Culture (p = 0.100). These findings suggest that for Saudi tourism workers, external ethical corporate behavior carries significantly more weight than internal workplace norms. The study concludes that DMCs must prioritize high-visibility social initiatives to secure long-term talent retention. The research delivers urgent strategic recommendations for executives navigating the Vision 2030 economic expansion.
subject: Articles
  topic: section
creator: Idrees Gul
creator: Imran Khan
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance
date: 2026-05-05
publication date: 2026-05-05
starting page: 360
ending page: 369
doi: 10.63075/t8q1y056

Ownership Structure, Audit Quality, And The Governance–Performance Nexus: Dynamic Panel Evidence
type: item
description: The study explores how corporate governance systems and quality of audit affect firm performance in an emerging market using a non-financial listed company in the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). The article, based on the agency theory and complementary governance frameworks, investigates the impact of board properties, ownership structure, audit committee properties, and composite governance indices on firm performance in terms of Return on Assets (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE), and Tobin, Q (TQ). It uses an unbalanced panel sample over a series of years and uses a Fixed Effects (FE) regression and dynamic two-step System Generalized Method of Moments (System GMM) estimator to overcome the advantages of unobserved heterogeneity, endogeneity, and dynamic persistence of firm performance. Pre-estimation diagnostics verify the stationarity, absence of extreme multicollinearity and endogeneity thus justifying the use of System GMM. Empirical evidence has shown that the independent board, board diversity, ownership concentration, audit committee independence and expertise, audit quality, and the overall corporate governance quality has a positive and statistically significant effect on the performance of the firm. On the other hand, CEO duality is significantly and persistently negatively linked to all performance measures, indicating the negative impact of managerial concentration. The findings of dynamic GMM also support performance persistence and support the soundness of the findings with standard post-estimation tests, such as Arellano-Bond and Hansen tests. Moreover, interaction studies indicate that strong corporate governance enhances the performance advantages of ownership structure and audit quality. The findings provide comprehensible evidence that good governance and good quality auditing are critical determinants of firm performance in Pakistan. The research, therefore, provides germane implications to regulators, policymakers, and corporate executives seeking …
subject: Articles
  topic: section
creator: Asim Khan
creator: Aniqa Arslan
creator: Arslan Qayyum
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance
date: 2026-05-05
publication date: 2026-05-05
starting page: 345
ending page: 359
doi: 10.63075/d5v6bp32

FinTech Adoption under Perceived Risk: The Mediating and Moderating Role of Trust, Usefulness, and Digital Literacy
type: item
description: The rapid expansion of financial technologies (FinTech) has transformed financial service delivery; however, user adoption remains uneven in emerging economies where concerns related to security, trust, and digital capability persist. Addressing this gap, this study investigates how risk perception influences behavioral intention to adopt FinTech services by integrating the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and Protection Motivation Theory (PMT). Specifically, the study examines the mediating roles of trust and perceived usefulness, alongside the moderating role of digital literacy, to explain users’ adoption intentions under conditions of perceived risk. The proposed model is tested using survey data collected from 410 banking customers in Pakistan through structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM). The findings reveal that risk perception exerts a significant negative effect on behavioral intention. However, this relationship is partially mediated by trust and perceived usefulness, indicating that users cognitively and relationally process perceived risk before forming adoption intentions. Furthermore, digital literacy significantly moderates the risk intention relationship, weakening the deterrent effect of perceived risk among more digitally competent users. This study advances FinTech adoption by integrating threat appraisal and benefit evaluation mechanisms into a unified framework, extending both TAM and PMT. The findings offer actionable insights for policymakers and FinTech providers seeking to enhance trust, promote digital capability, and foster inclusive digital financial adoption in emerging economies. FinTech adoption, Risk perception, Behavioral intention, Trust, usefulness, Digital literacy.
subject: Articles
  topic: section
creator: Saba Imam
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance
date: 2026-05-03
publication date: 2026-05-03
starting page: 331
ending page: 344
doi: 10.5281/zenodo.20009426

Impact of Net Export on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Pakistan
type: item
description: This study analyses the effects of net exports upon Pakistan's GDP with an analysis of annual time-series data covering 1978 to 2017. The dependent variable will be GDP in this research with exports, imports, gross fixed investment, Government expenditure, interest paid on external debt and Private consumption representing the independent variables. The ADF unit root test results indicated that the variables are stationary primarily at first differencing which allows the ARDL approach to be employed. The ARDL bounds test provided evidence of long run cointegration between the variables through a F-statistic of 5.080 which was above the 5% upper bound (3.61). Long run results indicated that exports have a positive influence on GDP; (β=0.1735; p<0.001) alongside a positive effect from gross fixed investment (β=0.1862; p<0.001), government expenditure (β=0.1740; p<0.001) and private consumption (β=0.9041; p<0.001). Imports were found to have a negative impact upon GDP (β=-0.2735; p<0.001) whilst interest paid on external debt also has a negative affect (β=-0.0272; p=0.020). The short run results were also found to be significant with an ECM coefficient of negative significance (β=-0.9989; p<0.001) confirming that adjustments to long-run equilibrium occur rapidly. This study recommends the promotion of export activity through improved productivity; increased levels of productive investment; and an emphasis on the importation of capital goods as means of achieving such growth in exports and GDP. Keywords:Gross domestic product, time series, trade balance, cointegration
subject: Articles
  topic: section
creator: Shahid Iqbal
creator: Saad Saif
creator: Kiran Bano
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance
date: 2026-02-15
publication date: 2026-02-15
starting page: 321
ending page: 330
doi: 10.5281/zenodo.19995036

Do Remittances Promote or Constrain Growth? Evidence from South Asian Economies
type: item
description: This study examines the remittance–growth nexus in Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka over 1980–2015 using a panel ARDL model with Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation. The approach captures both short-run dynamics and long-run relationships while allowing for cross-country heterogeneity. Results indicate that a 1% increase in remittances is associated with a 1.38% decline in long-run GDP growth. Dumitrescu–Hurlin tests show no bidirectional Granger causality, suggesting remittances operate largely outside the productive economy. In contrast, foreign direct investment and exports have positive and significant long-run effects. Short-run impacts are heterogeneous—positive in Pakistan, negative in Bangladesh, and insignificant in India and Sri Lanka. Overall, the findings support dependency and Dutch disease perspectives, highlighting the need to channel remittances toward productive investment through financial and institutional reforms. Keywords: Remittances; Economic Growth; South Asia; Panel ARDL; Pooled Mean Group; Dutch Disease
subject: Articles
  topic: section
creator: Aroosa Andleeb
creator: Dr. Abdul Manan Tauqeer
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance
date: 2026-05-02
publication date: 2026-05-02
starting page: 308
ending page: 320
doi: 10.63075/gvnbrp85

Credit Risk and Bank Performance in Emerging Markets. A Dual Protocol Systematic Review with Evidence from Pakistan
type: item
description: This paper sets forth the methodological framework of a systematic literature review investigating the link between credit risk management and bank performance, with a special emphasis on emerging markets and the Islamic banking system within Pakistan. Based on the PRISMA 2020 reporting protocol (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses), the literature review process extracted evidence from the initial 1350 identified literature databases, identifying 247 relevant studies after a detailed process of screening and deduplication. An update performed in 2025 and based on an integrative narrative strand, led to a final evidence base of 281 studies, with a chronological scope from the earliest model of credit risk measurement, the Altman Z-score model of 1968, to the use of machine learning techniques in the area in the latest period. This methodology merges systematicity and contextual sensitivity, utilizing Zotero reference management software to support deduplication, thematic labeling, and structured data extraction organized around 6 key themes: credit risk measurement techniques; the relationship between bank performance and risk; macroeconomic influences on the same topic; Islamic banking perspective; institutional specific studies focused on Pakistan; and technical/methodological developments in this topic. Quality assessment was applied along three aspects: technical/methodological robustness, context relevance, and influence in the academic field, adopted from existing management-related systematic review frameworks. This document specifies methods to account for publication bias, geographical bias, conceptual bias, researcher bias, and integrative bias. With documentation of the systematic literature search, selection criteria, screening process, quality assessment methodology, and theme extraction strategy, this paper contributes to the debate over the adaptability of medical systematic review methodologies to a context of informati…
subject: Articles
  topic: section
subject: systematic literature review
  topic: keywords
subject: PRISMA 2020
  topic: keywords
subject: credit risk
  topic: keywords
subject: bank performance
  topic: keywords
subject: emerging markets
  topic: keywords
subject: Pakistan
  topic: keywords
subject: Islamic banking
  topic: keywords
subject: thematic coding
  topic: keywords
subject: quality assessment
  topic: keywords
creator: Raza Ali
creator: Dr. Jameel Ahmed
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance
date: 2026-05-07
publication date: 2026-05-07
starting page: 370
ending page: 385
doi: 10.63075/khyme628

Forecasting Pakistan Stock Returns Using Economic Policy Uncertainty: Deep Learning Evidence from an Emerging Market
type: item
description: Accurate forecasting of stock returns remains a persistent challenge in financial economics, particularly in emerging markets characterized by policy uncertainty, macroeconomic volatility, and evolving institutional structures. Pakistan offers a relevant setting due to recurring political transitions, inflationary pressures, exchange rate instability, external financing constraints, and periodic policy shifts that frequently influence investor sentiment and market behavior. This study examines whether Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) improves the forecasting of Pakistan stock returns and whether advanced deep learning models outperform conventional econometric approaches. Using monthly data from 2010 to 2024, traditional benchmark models, including ARIMA, GARCH, and ARDL, are compared with modern deep learning architectures comprising Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), CNN-LSTM, and Transformer models. Forecasting performance is evaluated using root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The empirical findings show that incorporating EPU significantly enhances predictive accuracy across competing models, confirming the informational relevance of policy uncertainty for financial markets. Deep learning models consistently outperform benchmark econometric models, indicating the presence of nonlinear, dynamic, and time-varying relationships in Pakistan’s stock market. Among all competing approaches, Transformer and CNN-LSTM models deliver the strongest forecasting performance, with gains becoming more pronounced during crisis periods, including COVID-19-related disruptions and episodes of macroeconomic stress. The study contributes new evidence from an underexplored emerging market and demonstrates the value of integrating uncertainty indicators with modern artificial intelligence techniques for financial forecasting. The findings provide practical implications for investors, regulators, …
subject: Articles
  topic: section
creator: Mr. Ghulam Mustafa Shaikh*
creator: Ms. Shagufta Saleem Shaikh
creator: Ms. Faiza Ali
creator: Dr. Muhammad Masihullah Jato
creator: Mr. Ghulam Murtaza Sheikh
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance
date: 2025-07-29
publication date: 2025-07-29
starting page: 535
ending page: 553
doi: 10.63075/89rrqh80

Internal Control Effectiveness as a Moderator in the Relationship Between Corporate Social Responsibility and Firms' Financial Performance: Evidence from Pakistan
type: item
description: Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) has become a decisive strategic issue in companies in developing economies but its nexus with financial performance is still the matter of continuous empirical discussion and especially in the institutional sphere of weak governance structures, unclear regulations and heterogeneous stakeholders. This paper explores the moderating position of internal control effectiveness in the connection among multi-dimensional CSR and financial performance of firms in the Pakistani corporate environment. Based on a synthesized theoretical context, rooted in the Stakeholder Theory, Legitimacy Theory, Agency Theory, Social Contract Theory, and Environmental Theory and supported by Resource-Based View (RBV) and Institutional Theory, the research hypothesis is that the strong offices of internal control enhance the CSR-performance connection through quality of governance, transparency, and optimization of resources. The proposed study will have a mixed-method quantitative design which involves the use of both primary and secondary data. The structured questionnaire surveys conducted on a five-point scale (likert scale) were used to measure firm level practices of CSR across seven theoretically based dimensions: Economic, legal, ethical, philanthropic, environmental, stakeholder and governance as a primary source of data. Two globally accepted compliance framework networks were used to operationalise the internal control effectiveness: the Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission (COSO) framework and the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX) compliance indicators. To create three performance proxies of financial performance Return on Assets (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE) and the Q ratio of Tobin, which reflects accounting-based and market-based aspects of performance, secondary data were obtained through audited financial statements and Bloomberg databases. Four control variables at firm level are included: the size of firms, the age of …
subject: Articles
  topic: section
creator: Muhammad Ashraf
creator: Dr. Khalid Rehman
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance
date: 2026-04-29
publication date: 2026-04-29
starting page: 287
ending page: 307
doi: 10.5281/zenodo.19907135

Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), Consumer Trust, and Financial Performance: A Triangular Model of Management–Marketing–Finance Integration
type: item
description: This study examines the relationship between Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), consumer trust, and financial performance within an integrated management, marketing, and finance framework. As organizations increasingly invest in CSR initiatives, understanding their impact on consumer behavior and financial outcomes is essential. A quantitative, cross-sectional design was employed, with data collected from 300 consumers familiar with CSR activities using a structured questionnaire. The proposed mediation model was analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and bootstrapping techniques. Results indicate that CSR significantly enhances consumer trust (β = 0.514, p < 0.001), which in turn positively influences financial performance (β = 0.478, p < 0.001). Furthermore, consumer trust partially mediates the CSR–financial performance relationship, with an indirect effect (β = 0.246) accounting for 52.8% of the total effect (β = 0.466). These findings validate a triangular model linking behavioral and financial outcomes and offer practical insights for leveraging CSR to achieve sustainable performance. Keywords: CSR, trust, financial performance, consumer behavior, sustainability, SDGs, marketing.
subject: Articles
  topic: section
creator: Dr. Tahir Imran Gulzar
creator: Dr. Faisal Masud
creator: Dr. Syed Khalid Ahmed
creator: Muhammad Arsal Latif
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance
date: 2026-04-29
publication date: 2026-04-29
starting page: 255
ending page: 267
doi: 10.63075/fwenay62