Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance
The Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance is a valuable resource for economists, finance professionals, and students alike. This journal provides an up-to-date analysis of the latest economic trends, data, and research from around the world. It also covers topics such as asset pricing, financial engineering, macroeconomics, and microeconomics. With its comprehensive coverage of the field of econometrics and finance, this journal is an invaluable source for anyone looking to stay informed on the latest developments in this field.
Can Fiscal Stimulus Drive Inclusive Growth? Evidence from Productive Capacity and Human Development across Developed and Developing Countries
Fiscal stimulus is crucial during economic downturns as it helps to boost aggregate demand, support job creation, and stabilize financial markets. By injecting funds into the economy, governments can promote consumer spending and investment, which can lead to a quicker recovery. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of fiscal stimulus in inclusive growth in developed and developing countries. General Government Expenditure and tax revenue are taken as proxies for fiscal stimulus. The Human Development Index and productive capacity index are used as proxies for inclusive growth, whereas trade, per capita GDP, and inflation are taken as explanatory variables. Data are taken from the World Bank from 2000 to 2022 for developed and developing countries. Pedroni and Kao tests and the long-run cointegration test (FMOLS). The results show that final consumption expenditure and taxes increase inclusive growth in developed countries. While in developing countries, taxes have a positive and significant effect on the productive capacity index, whereas general government expenditures have a negative but insignificant effect on productive capacity. Besides, both taxes and general government expenditure have a positive and significant effect on human development. Keywords; Fiscal Stimulus, Inclusive Growth, Human Development, Productive Capacity
Copyright (c) 2026 Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance
Unraveling Export Performance Trends for Pakistan Under Military and Non-Military Regimes
This study evaluates Pakistan’s export performance under military and non-military political regimes from 1977 to 2024, with a special focus on export trends, structural composition, diversification, and export competitiveness. This study applies a descriptive and comparative methodology, and examines export dynamics of military and nonmilitary regimes by using indicators (exports as a percentage of GDP, trade deficit), export composition, export diversification matrix such as (number of exported products, HHI Index and Index of export market penetration), and Structural competiveness indicators (trade openness, real effective exchange rate (REER), foreign direct investment (FDI), and governance standards). The study results reveal that while military regimes show relatively stronger export growth, policy consistency, and higher FDI inflows, these gains were largely short-based and not sufficiently generate long term structural transformation. On the other hand, nonmilitary (i.e. democratic) regimes were more consistent with policy reforms. However, due to political instability, poor institutional performance and external shocks, Pakistan’s export performance was highly volatile. The study further demonstrates that Pakistan's export growth was largely dependent on market expansion rather than product diversification, and that Pakistan's exports consist mostly of low-value, traditional manufactured and primary goods. The study concludes that Pakistan’s export poor performance shows regime changes but is also caused by deep-rooted structural and institutional constraints. This study offers policy recommendations emphasizing institutional continuity, export diversification, exchange rate competitiveness, and governance reforms to achieve sustainable export-led growth.
Climate Finance, Carbon Markets and Environmental Justice in Pakistan
Purpose: Pakistan has adopted a range of market-based mechanisms (MBMs), including green bonds, debt-for-nature swaps, REDD+ and payments for ecosystem services (PES), to mitigate climate change while pursuing sustainable development. This study examines how effective these instruments have been in practice and what a political ecology reading of their design and implementation reveals about who actually benefits from them. Design: A qualitative, document-based research design was adopted. Secondary data were purposively drawn from government policy documents, academic journal articles, and reports issued by international financial institutions including the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, identified through Google Scholar, Web of Science, Scopus and JSTOR. Content analysis was used to examine how each mechanism has been designed, financed and implemented in Pakistan, interpreted through a political ecology framework. Findings: Each of the four mechanisms examined shows a similar pattern: technically sound instruments whose benefits are captured disproportionately by state and corporate actors, while the costs and risks fall on local communities and, ultimately, the public through inelastic demand for basic resources. Green bonds remain concentrated in developed economies and have done little to build local green human capital. Debt-for-nature swaps are constrained by provincial ownership disputes and weak inter-ministerial coordination. REDD+ has recorded isolated local successes but is criticised for privileging landowners and corporate carbon interests over the forest-dependent communities it is meant to protect. PES mechanisms extend funding to communities directly but remain vulnerable to weak stakeholder participation and inconsistent governance. Policy implications: The findings point to the absence of a coherent legal framework governing the allocation and oversight of climate finance in Pakistan as the common constraint across all four mechanisms, rather than any single instrument's design. Strengthening transparency, accountability and community participation requirements across MBMs would do more to improve outcomes than expanding the number of instruments in use. Value: Existing Pakistan-focused literature on market-based climate mechanisms tends to evaluate individual instruments in isolation. This study instead applies a single political ecology framework consistently across four distinct mechanisms, allowing the power dynamics common to all of them, rather than the features specific to any one, to come into view. Keywords Market-based mechanisms; political ecology; carbon markets; climate finance; green bonds; REDD+; environmental justice; Pakistan.
Copyright (c) 2025 Advance Journal of Econometrics and Finance
Exploring the Role of Technological Advancement, Organizational Capabilities, and Governance in Mitigating Financial Delinquency: The Mediating Effect of Green Innovation and Risk Management
This study investigates the contribution of technology development, firm competencies, and governance on minimizing financial delinquency using green innovation and risk management as the primary mediators that assist in lowering the chances of financial delinquency and overdue payments. For this study, a quantitative research design with Partial Least Square Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) is adopted. This data was collected from questionnaires distributed using a five-point Likert Scale to employees working within the corporate and financial sectors. A non-probability sampling method was used and data were analyzed using SmartPLS software. The findings indicate that technology innovation and capabilities have a significant and positive influence on financial delinquency, either direct or indirect. The capability in risk management and green innovation is significant in the mediation process, but green innovation had more influence. However, corporate governance is insignificant in the moderation process. Also, the findings indicate that there are issues with measurement validity, as evidenced by the low factor loadings. The study makes a theoretical contribution through the integration of RBV and DCT theories with financial delinquency theory. This contributes through provision of an integrated perspective on how resources translate into dynamic capabilities that influence financial performance. The study suggests that businesses should emphasize the development of technology and organizational skills to improve their financial performance. They should also develop risk management systems and adopt green innovations. The government needs to facilitate the adoption of good corporate governance and risk management for financial performance improvement. Keywords- Technological Innovation, Organizational Capabilities, Green Innovation, Risk Management Capabilities, Corporate Governance, Financial Delinquency
Corporate Sustainability Initiatives and Consumer Values as Drivers of Sustainable Performance: The Role of Authenticity and Action Plans
The present study explored how corporate sustainability efforts and consumer attitudes towards the environment affect sustainable performance in terms of perceived company authenticity and sustainability action plans. The study employed quantitative research design, and the data was collected using a structured questionnaire from which a total of 292. The independent variables were the initiatives of the company on sustainability and the value of the environment to consumers, the mediating variables perceived authenticity of the company and implementation of SAP, and the dependent variable was the company's sustainable performance. The findings suggest that consumer environmental value positively affects sustainable performance, meaning that the environment-conscious consumers can positively drive firms to become more responsible and sustainable. The study finds that implementing action-based solutions can boost sustainable performance if companies are able to integrate genuine sustainability programs with appropriate actions. Keywords- Corporate Sustainability Initiatives; Consumer Environmental Value; Perceived Corporate Authenticity; Sustainability Action Plans; Sustainable Performance; Environmental Concern
Financial Literacy Gaps and Their Effect on Wealth Accumulation: A Cross-National Empirical Review
This study examines the causal link between insufficient financial literacy and the accumulation of household wealth, using a panel of 42 economies that includes developed, emerging, and low-income nations. Data from the Standard & Poor's Global Financial Literacy Survey, the World Bank Global Findex Database, and the OECD/INFE Financial Literacy Survey (2015–2024) are analyzed through fixed-effects panel regressions, instrumental variable estimation, and mediation analysis. These methods help clarify the specific pathways by which gaps in financial knowledge lead to reduced savings, suboptimal investment decisions, higher debt levels, and inadequate retirement planning. The results indicate a statistically significant and economically substantial penalty for low financial literacy across all income categories. On average, the wealth disparity between households in the top and bottom quartiles of financial literacy amounts to 38.4 per cent of net household wealth. Importantly, the severity of this penalty is moderated by factors such as institutional quality, the availability of digital financial infrastructure, and specific financial education programs. The discussion considers relevant policy implications in the context of the G20 Financial Inclusion Framework and the UN Sustainable Development Goals.
HOW DEMOGRAPHIC, ECONOMIC, AND ENVIRONMENTAL CIRCUMSTANCES SHAPE LABOUR’S PRODUCTIVITY IN RURAL SETTING: A CASE STUDY OF CHITRAL
This study explains how labour’s productivity is influenced by various circumstances like demographic, environmental, economic circumstances in rural areas of Chitral a District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. The study used community based purposive sampling method to collect data from 381 workers from scattered regions and workplaces. Before proceeding to formal tests, reliability test and collinearity assessment tests were applied. The data turned out reliable and no serious collinearity was detected among regressors. To achieve the objectives of the study, multiple linear regression analysis was applied on the collected data. The theoretical foundations of this study lied in the Sen’s Capability approach theory, which captures the important external factors and individual’s capabilities in determining worker’s productivity. The results showed that human capital is the strongest predictor of labour’s productivity in Chitral. Whereas, the environmental circumstances, discrimination, economic instability have negative impacts on productivity. The demographics and housing quality also played important impact on labour’s outcomes. Overall, this study explains that the labour’s productivity in rural settings is not only impacted by personal efforts rather, it is influenced by a combination of structural, contextual and demographic circumstances which either limit or support the labour’s performance and efficiency. This study has significantly contributed to the literature of regional development and labour economics by providing in dept and context-specific identification of determinants of labour’s productivity in geographically isolated, remote and marginalized area of Pakistan. The study also provide policy recommendations based on the findings of the study. Moreover, the study highlighted the limitation of the study and also provide future research directions. Keywords- Circumstances, Productivity, Capability Approach theory, Human capital, collinearity.
EVALUATING BANK PERFORMANCE UNDER THE PAKISTAN GREEN TAXONOMY: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ISLAMIC AND CONVENTIONAL FRAMEWORKS
The State Bank of Pakistan’s implementation of the Pakistan Green Taxonomy (PGT) marks a major empirical shift toward climate-resilient finance. This study examines how PGT compliance affects bank performance in Pakistan’s dual-banking system using a rigorous, purely quantitative methodology. We balance a panel data set of 20 commercial Pakistani banks over a nine-year period (2018–2026), generating 180 firm-year observations. Using Fixed-Effects (FE) and Two-Step System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) econometric estimation, we find a dual trend: PGT compliance creates a statistically significant short-term drag on profitability metrics (ROA, ROE) due to immediate operational compliance expenditures, but leads to a substantial long-term enhancement of asset quality by lowering Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratios. Crucially, the interaction models reveal that Shariah-compliant frameworks enjoy a distinct resilience advantage over conventional banks, mitigating the initial profitability drop while yielding sharper reductions in credit default rates. The paper concludes with objective, data-driven macroprudential recommendations, including the recalibration of risk-weighted assets (RWA) by the central bank to support sustainable financial growth.
Economic Growth and Decarbonization in Pakistan: A Time-Series Analysis of Carbon Intensity Drivers (1990–2023)
This research explores the prominent macroeconomic and energy-associated factors of the carbon intensity of the GDP in Pakistan between 1990 and 2023. The critical indicator of the ability to gauge the environmental efficiency of economic growth is carbon intensity which is expressed as the kg of CO 2 equivalent/per PPP-adjusted GDP dollar. The analysis is the data on the carbon intensity (CI), trade openness (TO), and the use of renewable energy (REN), GDP per capita (GDPPC), and the intensity of energy use (EU), all measured in terms of annual rates instead of the past years, employing a time-series econometric model. The first order I(1) integration of variables is supported by a set of diagnostic tests and a consistent relationship at the long-run level between the two variables is determined by the graph presenting the Johansen cointegration test. The estimated long-run coefficients indicate that consumption of renewable energy and GDP per capita have considerable negative impacts on carbon intensity meaning that they have contributed to decoupling of emissions and the production of the economy. On the other hand, intensity demonstrates a positive, but less significant relationship with trade openness. A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) reflects the short-run dynamics and the renewable energy changes are noted as a powerful short-term force. The model has been tested to ensure that the tests of serial correlation, normality and heteroskedasticity are sound, but the CUSUM of squares test raises a warning of possible parameter instability, which could be associated with significant changes in policy. The results suggest that further development of Pakistan should be pegged on the aggressively increasing the infrastructure of renewable energy, promoting cost-effective economies, and planning their trade policies in such a way that their impact on the environment will be limited. The research gives policy makers empirically based knowledge on how to align the economy of Pakistan with the commitments of climate change.
Carbon Intensity, Decoupling, Renewable Energy, Trade openness, VECM, Cointegration, Pakistan, Sustainable development.
Impact of Artificial Intelligence-Driven Project Management on Operational Performance in Oil and Gas Projects: A Structural Equation Modeling Approach
The oil and gas industry is a capital-intensive, high-risk sector in which project delays, cost overruns, and unmanaged operational risk carry substantial financial and safety consequences. Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly promoted as a lever for improving project management practice, yet the mechanisms and boundary conditions through which AI-driven project management (AI-PM) translates into operational performance (OP) remain insufficiently tested in this sector. Drawing on the resource-based view and dynamic capabilities theory, this study develops and tests a structural model in which project risk management (PRM) mediates, and organizational readiness (OR) moderates, the relationship between AI-PM and OP. Survey data were collected from 285 professionals working across the upstream, midstream, and downstream segments of the oil and gas value chain and analyzed using partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM). The measurement model demonstrated adequate reliability, convergent validity, and discriminant validity. The structural model explained 41.1% of the variance in operational performance and 23.7% of the variance in project risk management, with acceptable predictive relevance. All five hypothesized relationships were supported: AI-PM positively affected OP directly and indirectly through PRM, and organizational readiness positively moderated the AI-PM-OP relationship. The findings suggest that AI-driven project management is most beneficial when it is embedded in strong risk management routines and supported by organizational readiness, offering both theoretical extensions to technology-performance research and practical guidance for oil and gas project organizations.
artificial intelligence, project management, operational performance, project risk management, organizational readiness, oil and gas, PLS-SEM
FINTECH ADOPTION IN HR SYSTEMS: EFFECTS ON PAYROLL EFFICIENCY, EMPLOYEE SATISFACTION, AND ECONOMIC DIGITIZATION
The sudden increase in the number of financial technology (FinTech) systems in the human resource (HR) and management system has radically reshaped the organizational payroll systems, employee engagement models and the general path of economic digitalization. The proposed research is a multidimensional investigation of the impact of adopting the FinTech in HR systems in a sample of 420 organizations based on the level of emerging and developed economies. Using a mixed-methods research design that combines structured survey tools, semi-structured interviews, and secondary financial data, this study will assess the scale and nature of the effect of FinTech adoption on the efficiency of payroll processing, employee satisfaction rates, and national digitalization rates of the economy. Statistically significant increases in payroll accuracy ( 0.68, p = 0.001) and a drop in processing time by an average of 64.3% and a significant increase in employee satisfaction scores (mean difference = 1.87, 5-point Likert scale) were statistically significant in quantitative analyses. Moreover, regression and mediation analyses show that the quality of the digital infrastructure and the organizational FinTech preparedness play a significant role in moderating these relationships. These results are supported by the qualitative results, which reveal benefits perceived in transparency, equity, and real-time financial access. Theoretical contributions are put in the context of Technological Acceptance Model (TAM), Diffusion of Innovation Theory and the Institutional Theory. Practical implications target the HR managers, Policymakers, and FinTech developers. Limitations, such as cross-sectional design limitations and self-report biases are also noted and recommendations made on future longitudinal and comparative studies. Keywords- FinTech, HR systems, payroll efficiency, employee satisfaction, economic digitization, digital transformation, human resource management, TAM, emerging economies
GREEN BUILDING CONSTRUCTION AND ENERGY-EFFICIENT CONSTRUCTION METHOD IN PAKISTAN: A SYSTEMATIC LITERATURE REVIEW
This systematic literature review examines the adoption of green building materials and energy-efficient construction techniques in Pakistan's construction industry. The review synthesises recent evidence from studies published between 2021 and 2025, together with the latest official documents on building energy efficiency, green building regulations, climate policy, and implementation frameworks. The analysis covers a broad range of sustainable materials, including low-clinker and cement-free binders, alternative masonry systems, recycled aggregates, agricultural-residue-based products, bamboo, thermal insulation, cool roofs, high-performance glazing, and low-impact finishing materials. It also investigates key energy-efficient construction strategies, including climate-responsive planning, shading systems, building envelope optimisation, daylighting, natural ventilation, energy-efficient HVAC systems, solar energy integration, smart metering, building retrofitting, green procurement, off-site construction, construction waste minimisation, Building Information Modelling (BIM), commissioning, and workforce capacity development. The review adopts a PRISMA-aligned systematic documentary approach, with thematic coding applied to a corpus of 31 peer-reviewed studies and policy documents. The findings indicate that Pakistan possesses a technically viable portfolio of sustainable building materials and energy-efficiency solutions. However, their widespread adoption remains constrained by weak regulatory enforcement, limited market awareness, inadequate testing and certification systems, fragmented procurement practices, uncertain financing mechanisms, and insufficient professional expertise. The Energy Conservation Building Code (ECBC) 2023 and its associated implementation tools provide a stronger regulatory foundation for improving building performance; their effectiveness will depend on the institutional capacity of local authorities, robust technical specifications, consistent quality assurance, and post-construction performance verification. The review concludes that sustainable construction should be implemented as an integrated project delivery process rather than as the isolated adoption of individual technologies or materials. It recommends the early incorporation of performance-based design briefs, context-sensitive material selection, an envelope-first design strategy, life-cycle-based procurement, mandatory building commissioning, targeted workforce training, and stronger evidence-based integration of building codes, financing mechanisms, and regulatory inspection systems to accelerate the transition towards sustainable construction in Pakistan. Keywords: Green Building Materials; Energy-Efficient Construction; Sustainable Construction; Pakistan Construction Industry; Energy Conservation Building Code (ECBC). 2023.
RISK IDENTIFICATION AND ASSESSMENT IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS
The construction industry is a place of uncertainty, complexity and constant change, impacting project cost, time, quality and safety. Construction projects face many financial, technical, managerial, contractual, safety and external risks that can have a significant impact on project performance if not identified and assessed properly. The purpose of this study is to identify the major risks that are faced in construction projects, assess the probability and severity of the risks, discuss the methods that are used to identify and assess the risks and prioritize the most important risk factors in the construction industry. The quantitative research method was employed and a questionnaire survey was conducted with construction professionals such as project managers, engineers, contractors, consultants and other industry practitioners. The data were analysed with the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). The descriptive statistics such as frequency and percentage distribution were used for analysing the respondents' profile and the mean score analysis and Relative Importance Index (RII) were used to rank the critical risk factors. Furthermore, probability–impact analysis was used to assess the impact of the risks identified, following the common approach in construction management research. The results show that the most important risks to project performance are inflation, rising material costs, poor planning and scheduling, slow client payments, design errors and omissions, and accidents and injuries on the construction site. The study also shows that in practice, risk identification and assessment is mainly based on personal experience, site meetings, checklists and expert judgement, while formal analytical risk assessment techniques are used less. The study emphasizes the importance of a more systematic and structured risk management process, which combines analytical assessment methods with practical experience from the industry to enhance the performance of projects and decision making in the construction industry. Keywords- Construction industry, risk identification, risk assessment, project risk, probability-impact analysis, Relative Importance Index (RII), inflation, material price increase.
MONETARY CONTRIBUTION FOR CONTROLLING WATER SHORTAGE: A CASE STUDY OF DISTRICT PESHAWAR, KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA PAKISTAN
Groundwater is a vital resource that supports agriculture, industry, and domestic needs in many regions of the world. The level of ground water is continuously declining in different part of the world which has significant impacts on the economy, environment, and public health. Water shortage can affect productivity of crops and industrial. In the current stress condition of water resources, has drawn the attention of researcher. The significance of groundwater issue in the global development agenda and highlights the need for proactive management. Worldwide more than two billion people depend on groundwater for their daily usage. The continuous mismanagement in extraction of groundwater has causes depletion in ground water, as a result the surface level is declining on daily bases might be results in serious water shortage in future. This study explores and analyzes the willingness to pay for controlling water shortage and improve water quality through which over usage can be reduce in district Peshawar. The study focuses on the current water situation in Peshawar, considering its importance for sustainable development and the well-being of the residents. The sample size of 281 respondents was selected. The household willingness to pay per month is dependent variable. While household head age, education, family size, income, water quality, gender and dummy of tube well water supply and water from filtration plant for household were among explanatory variables. The results shows that household education level, age, income, dummy for tube well and filtration plant are significant and have positive relationship with willingness to pay. However, household family size, gender and water quality are insignificant. Household age is positively in relationship with willingness to pay. Proper monitoring and evaluation is need for the supply of safe and clean water supply. There are people who do not trust local bodies or government department.
Effect of Income Diversification on Financial Performance with Moderating Role of Financial Stability: Evidence from Commercial Banks in Afghanistan Using the CAMEL-DEA Approach
This study aims to analyze the impact of income diversification on the financial performance with the moderating role of financial stability of commercial banks (CBs) in Afghanistan. Currently, there is no empirical evidence related to this topic in Afghanistan. This study analyzes data from eight CBs covering the period from 2015 to 2024. The data were collected from the official websites of the respective banks. For the analysis, the author has employed panel data regression analysis techniques, including the Fixed Effects Model (FEM), Random Effects Model (REM), and Pooled Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model. For the measurement of financial performance, the study used the capital adequacy, assets quality, management quality, earnings, and liquidity (CAMEL) framework, and for the measurement of income diversification, the study used the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI). For measuring FS, the author used the Z-score. The study concludes and confirms that income diversification significantly improves the financial performance of Afghan CBs and have a significant relationship. Furthermore, financial stability as a moderating variable improves the impact of income diversification on financial performance, and found to be positive and significant. The findings back up portfolio theory and say that for the purpose of improving financial performance and maintaining risk the most important factor to consider is income diversification. This study is significant for a number of reasons. For one, the examination of income diversification in conjunction with stability as a moderating variable is the first study of its kind in Afghanistan. This study results are of the practical value to customers in improving their trust, investors for their investment in non interest based activities, bank managers for focusing more on managing the non interest activities, policymakers for making relevant policies to support non interest based activities, and other stakeholders for believing on banks in Afghanistan.
Income diversification, financial performance, moderating analysis, financial stability, control variables, tangibility, leverage, bank size, Afghanistan, commercial banks, panel data.
Micro-Foundations of Macro Sustainability: How Green HRM and Employee Behaviors Lead to Corporate Sustainable Performance in Hospitality SMEs
Purpose: This study aims to investigate the internal behaviour mechanisms needed to transform environmental policies to multi-dimensional organizational outcomes. This study seeks to answer the question: How Green Human Resource Management (GHRM) affects Corporate Sustainable Performance (CSP) when mediated by Employee Pro-Environmental Behavior (PEB) and moderated by Green Transformational Leadership (GTL) by combining Ability-Motivation-Opportunity (AMO) theory and the Natural Resource-Based View (NRBV). Design/Methodology/Approach: Quantitative, cross-sectional design was used. The primary survey data was collected from the operational and supervisory employees of the SMEs in the hospitality sector of Pakistan through the process of purpose sampling. The variance-based partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) using Smart PLS 3 software was used for the complex moderated mediation pathways. Findings: The empirical results show that there is a positive impact of GHRM on PEB and PEB also positively and significantly impacts on CSP. Moreover, PEB plays a key role in the relationship between GHRM and CSP and is a key micro-foundational link. What is worth noting is that, the final structural model shows that there is a negative moderation effect between PEB and CSP by the variable GTL, thus suggesting a buffering role of GTL to the relationship between PEB and CSP; it means strong green leadership is a structural buffer which decreases the reliance of the firm's environmental performance on individual and unsystematic actions of each employee. Theoretical implications: It extends the AMO and NRBV frameworks, so it does not only move towards sustainability literature but also towards the bridging of the micro – macro divide. It differs from the GHRM domain through a unique approach of green transformational leadership as a stabilizer of the system instead of just a motivational accelerator. Practical implications: HR & sustainability managers in SMEs in the hospitality sector should implement structured GHRM systems in conjunction with leadership development. A strong green leadership environment helps to maintain corporate sustainability objectives in the face of the every-day ups and downs in employee voluntary actions. These insights can be used by policy makers to develop environmental compliance frameworks for SMEs. Originality/Value: This study proposes a new moderated mediation model by incorporating GHRM, PEB, GTL, and CSP in the context of the hospitality SMEs in Pakistan, which is a field requiring little research and resources. The buffering effect of environmental leadership unveils a quite novel view on how to create sustainable companies in the long run.
Corporate Sustainable Performance, Employee Pro-Environmental Behavior, Green Human Resource Management, Green Transformational Leadership, Hospitality SMEs, PLS-SEM
Impact of Aero-Financial Literacy and Passenger Satisfaction on Airline Repurchase Intention: A Mediating Role of Word-of-Mouth
The airline industry operates on razor-thin margins, retaining barely US$7 of profit per passenger carried, which makes repeat purchase behavior a matter of commercial survival rather than marketing preference. The global airline industry has evolved from a service-oriented to a customer-oriented sector. Within this shift, passengers' ability to understand, evaluate and interpret airline fare structures, dynamic pricing, ancillary fees and cost–benefit trade-offs referred as Aero-Financial Literacy (AFL) increasingly shapes their loyalty and repurchase decisions. Grounded in expectation–confirmation paradigm, this study examines the direct effects of AFL and Passenger Satisfaction (PS) on Repurchase Intention (RI) and tests the mediating role of Word-of-Mouth (WOM) in transmitting these antecedents to repurchase behavior. A quantitative, deductive, cross-sectional design was employed and data were collected from total 292 valid responses from frequent flyers (travelling at least 8–10 times per year) in Pakistan analyzed using PLS-SEM. The results reveal that PS and AFL each exerted significant positive direct effects on RI. AFL also exhibited a particularly strong direct effect on WOM which emerged as the strongest proximal predictor of RI. WOM significantly partially mediated both the PS–RI and AFL–RI relationships and the indirect effect of AFL through WOM exceeded its direct effect that indicating that the dominant mechanism through which financial literacy shapes airline repurchase is social rather than purely cognitive. These findings extend financial literacy theory into the aviation context and suggest that airlines in emerging markets prioritize fare-transparency communication and financial-education touchpoints, since these more strongly activate word-of-mouth advocacy than satisfaction management alone. Keywords-Aero-Financial Literacy; Passenger Satisfaction; Word-of-Mouth; Repurchase Intention; Airline Marketing; PLS-SEM; Pakistan; Aviation Consumer Behavior
Machine Learning Applications in Climate Finance, Energy Systems and Sustainable Economic Policy
Background: The convergence of climate urgency and digital innovation has positioned machine learning (ML) as a transformative force in sustainable development. Climate finance, energy systems and economic policy now generate large, noisy and heterogeneous datasets that exceed the limits of many traditional analytical tools. Objective: This manuscript examines ML applications across three interconnected domains: climate finance, energy systems and sustainable economic policy. Methods: A systematic literature review following PRISMA principles was combined with bibliometric mapping, meta-analysis of model performance, comparative assessment of ML techniques, explainable-AI synthesis and case-study evidence from climate-related financial policies across 87 countries. Results: ML models demonstrate superior predictive accuracy in carbon-price forecasting, renewable-energy forecasting, ESG scoring and policy evaluation. Ensemble models improve carbon-price forecasting by approximately 15-25% compared with traditional econometric approaches; deep-learning models for solar-PV forecasting commonly achieve MAPE values of 2-5%; and SHAP-based policy analysis shows that advanced economies gain stronger policy impact than emerging markets because of better institutions, data infrastructure and enforcement capacity. Conclusion: ML can strengthen sustainability decision-making by improving prediction, reducing uncertainty, revealing hidden patterns and supporting integrated modelling. However, data quality, interpretability, algorithmic bias, regulatory fragmentation and uneven institutional capacity remain decisive barriers. The study recommends standardized data systems, AI governance rules, explainable models, regional capacity building and integrated decision-support frameworks. Keywords Machine Learning; Climate Finance; Energy Systems; Sustainable Policy; Carbon Markets; Esg; Renewable Energy; Explainable Ai; Ensemble Learning; Green Taxation.
Employee Innovative Capability and Organizational Performance: The Moderating Role of Organizational Culture
Employee innovative capability has emerged as a critical determinant of organizational success in today's dynamic and competitive business environment. This study investigates the influence of employee innovative capability on organizational performance and examines the moderating role of organizational culture in the sugar manufacturing industry of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Pakistan. Guided by the Resource-Based View (RBV) theory, the study adopts a quantitative, cross-sectional research design under the positivist research philosophy. Primary data were collected from 330 middle- and lower-level managers using a structured questionnaire and analyzed through SPSS and AMOS-SEM. Reliability, confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), and structural equation modeling (SEM) were employed to assess the measurement and structural models. The findings reveal that employee innovative capability significantly enhances organizational performance. Among its dimensions, product innovation, market innovation, and organizational innovation positively influence organizational performance, whereas process innovation does not demonstrate a significant effect. Furthermore, organizational culture has a significant positive effect on organizational performance and moderates the relationship between employee innovative capability and organizational performance by strengthening the effects of product and organizational innovation while weakening the effects of process and market innovation. The structural model explains 74.9% of the variance in organizational performance (R² = 0.749), indicating strong explanatory power.This study contributes to the innovation and organizational behavior literature by extending the Resource-Based View and providing empirical evidence from Pakistan's manufacturing sector. The findings offer practical implications for managers and policymakers seeking to improve organizational performance by fostering employee innovation within a supportive organizational culture.
Impact of Financial Anxiety, Risk Tolerance, and Peer Influence on Investment Behavior among University Students
The study addressed the correlation between the three research variables, financial anxiety, risk tolerance, and peer influence in determining the investment behavior of university students in Pakistan. The theory of planned behavior and the behavioral finance theory inform the research because it explores the influences of psychological and social antecedents on decision-making behavior of financial matters among young adults who are about to become economically independent. The study design was a quantitative one of 385 university students (in private and in general institutions of higher learners). The constructs in question were measured with the help of structured questionnaires and data obtained following the analysis were analyzed with the help of reliability analysis, correlation procedures and regression statistics. The empirical evidence reveals that financial anxiety has a statistically significant negative impact on investment behavior with an implication that the higher the stress level, the less will encourage financial participation. Risk tolerance and peer influence, in contrast, showed strong positive correlations, indicating that an openness to uncertainty and the influence of social networks make them open to take risks in their financial activities. Together, the three predictors explained 41 % of the variance in investment behavior. In theory, the research widens the behavioral finance lenses in a collectivist cultural context, whereas, in practice, it highlights the need to use specific financial education, student-led programs, and intervention strategies in order to reduce financial anxiety in students. Shortcoming of the current study and prospective lines of enquiry are also expressed.
Financial Anxiety; Risk Tolerance; Peer Influence; Investment Behavior; Behavioral Finance; Theory of Planned Behavior
Impact of Digital Media Awareness on Financial Fraud Detection In Pakistan
This study examines how Digital Media Awareness (DMA) influences Fraud Detection Ability (FDA) in Pakistan’s digital finance landscape, with Digital Financial Literacy (DFL) as a mediator and age, education, and prior victimization as moderators. Data from 81 adult digital banking users show moderate DMA and FDA but low DFL. Regression analysis reveals that both DMA and DFL significantly predict FDA, explaining 58% of variance. DFL partially mediates the relationship, while all three moderators significantly strengthen the positive effect of DMA on fraud detection. The key implication is that awareness alone is insufficient practical financial skills and demographic/experiential factors are essential. The study calls for integrated educational interventions combining media literacy, financial training, and experiential learning to build consumer resilience and a safer digital financial ecosystem in developing contexts
Digital Media Awareness, Fraud Deduction Ability, Age, Education, Pakistan
Global Shocks and Local Impacts: A Diebold-Yilmaz Spillovers Analysis of the US, Commodity Markets, and Pakistan
This paper examines the transmission of the macroeconomic and financial shocks from the United States to the global commodity markets and Pakistan by using a comprehensive monthly data set for the period January 2007-August 2021. Using the advanced spillover index framework of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) based on generalized forecast error variance decomposition (GFEVD) of a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, we then build a six variables system of the Pakistani rupee–US dollar exchange rate, domestic inflation in Pakistan, US interest rates, the US Dollar Index (DXY), global volatility (as proxied by the VIX), and Brent crude oil prices. The empirical results indicate that the total spillover index is 20.62% at the 10-month forecast horizon, the corresponding value of the degree of connectedness is moderate, but not negligible from the economic point of view. The VIX is the biggest net transmitter of shocks (+2.74%), followed by the PKR/USD exchange rate (+1.42%) and the DXY (+1.20%). On the other hand, oil prices are net receivers of spillovers along with Pakistani inflation (−2.11%) and US interest rates (−1.59%). The results have significant implications at the level of monetary policy design, exchange rate policy, and risk management strategies for emerging market economies with limited financial markets and high external vulnerability. spillover index, exchange rate, VAR, generalized forecast error variance decomposition, emerging markets, Pakistan, commodity prices, volatility transmission
The Role Of Compensation Management In Enhancing Employee Retention In The Banking Sector At Pesawar, Khyber Pakhunkhwa
This study examined the role of compensation management in enhancing employee retention in the banking sector of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, with specific focus on selected private sector banks operating in Peshawar. Compensation management is considered an important human resource practice because it influences employees’ satisfaction, motivation, loyalty, and intention to remain with an organization. The study focused on compensation management, salary structure, incentives, bonuses, fairness, competitiveness, transparency, performance-based rewards, and recognition as key factors affecting employee retention. A quantitative research design was adopted for the study. The total number of employees in the selected banks was 230, out of which 165 employees working in officer, operations, customer service, cash, sales, and branch management positions were considered as the target population. Using Yamane’s formula, a sample size of 117 respondents was selected. Data were collected through a structured questionnaire consisting of demographic questions and Likert-scale items related to compensation management and employee retention. The data were analyzed through SPSS version 22 by applying descriptive statistics, reliability analysis, correlation analysis, regression analysis, independent sample t-test, and ANOVA. The findings showed that compensation management had a positive and significant relationship with employee retention. Salary structure also had a significant effect on retention, while incentives and bonuses showed a positive but comparatively weaker influence. The study concluded that fair, competitive, transparent, and performance-linked compensation practices can improve employee loyalty and reduce turnover intentions. The study recommends that private sector banks should strengthen salary fairness, improve reward transparency, and design practical incentive systems to enhance employee retention
Compensation Management, Employee Retention, Salary Structure, Incentives And Bonuses, Banking Sector, Peshawar
Impact Of Artificial Intelligence On Project Scheduling And Project Success In Organizations
This paper examines the impact of Artificial Intelligence on project scheduling and project success in organizations. In the modern project management environment, organizations are increasingly adopting AI-based tools to improve planning accuracy, resource allocation, risk prediction, decision-making, and overall project performance. Traditional project scheduling methods often face limitations such as delays, cost overruns, poor forecasting, and inefficient resource utilization. Therefore, the integration of AI has become important for achieving timely and successful project outcomes. The main objective of this study is to analyze how Artificial Intelligence contributes to effective project scheduling and how it influences project success in terms of time, cost, quality, efficiency, and stakeholder satisfaction. The study is based on both primary and secondary data. Primary data is collected through a structured questionnaire from respondents associated with project management and organizational operations, while secondary data is obtained from relevant books, research articles, and online academic sources. A quantitative research approach is used to examine the relationship between AI adoption, project scheduling efficiency, and project success. A sample size of 450 respondents was selected for the study. The respondents were selected through a non-probability purposive sampling technique Purposive sampling was considered suitable because the research focused on specific professional respondents who could provide relevant information about the use of Artificial Intelligence in project scheduling and project success. The findings of the paper indicate that Artificial Intelligence has a positive influence on project scheduling by improving forecasting, reducing human error, supporting real-time monitoring, and enabling better decision-making. AI also contributes to project success by helping managers identify risks earlier, allocate resources more effectively, and complete projects within planned time and budget limits. The study concludes that organizations that adopt AI in project management are more likely to achieve improved scheduling performance and successful project outcomes. This paper is significant because it highlights the growing role of AI in modern project management practices. It recommends that organizations should invest in AI-based scheduling tools, train project teams in digital technologies, and integrate AI into decision-making processes to enhance project efficiency and long-term organizational success.
Artificial Intelligence (AI), Project Management, Project Scheduling, Project Success, Decision-Making, Resource Allocation, Risk Management, Organizational Performance, Project Planning, Project Efficiency
Financial Innovation and Islamic Financial Institution’s Performance: Examining the Mediating Role of Corporate Social Responsibility
The study focuses on the role of financial innovation on the performance of Islamic financial institutions (IFIs), with CSR being a mediator. Islamic financial institutions are increasingly embracing novel financial practices to become more competitive, efficient and sustainable in the changing financial environment. But there is not much empirical evidence on the direct and indirect effect of financial innovation on institutional performance via CSR. The study uses positivist research philosophy and quantitative research approach with a cross sectional research design to overcome this. Primary data was collected from 532 employees at managerial level from simple random sampling of Islamic financial institutions (IFIs) which included Islamic banks (full-fledged) and Islamic bank branches (conventional banks) in Pakistan. Data analysis was conducted using SPSS and Smart PLS-SEM 4 for preliminary data analysis, measurement and structural model analysis. The findings indicate that the financial innovation has a positive impact on the performance of Islamic financial institutions and that it also positively contributes to enhance the CSR practices. Further, the CSR positively impacts the institutional performance and it is also an important mediator between financial innovation and institutional performance. Based on the findings of this study, it can be concluded that financial innovation and CSR complement each other, both of which are strategic approaches to sustainable growth in the Islamic finance sector. The study contributes to the existing knowledge by conceptually integrating the notions of innovation and social responsibility into one and provides relevant insight for managers and policy makers for enhancing the competitiveness and social legitimacy of institutions. The study makes a few recommendations for Islamic financial institutions to consider to ensure long-term sustainable performance; these recommendations include focusing on technological innovations and enhancing CSR initiatives. Keywords: Islamic Finance, Islamic Banking, Performance, Financial Innovation, Corporate Social Responsibility, SMART PLS-SEM.
Cryptocurrency Market Volatility and Its Spillover Effects on Traditional Financial Markets
The fast growth of cryptocurrency markets since 2017 has transformed digital assets from a marginal speculative place into a class of instruments closely watched by institutional investors, central banks, and financial regulators. This article look at the volatility characteristics of cryptocurrency markets and the mechanisms through which that volatility spills over into traditional financial markets, including equities, foreign exchange, sovereign bonds, and commodities. Drawing on the empirical literature employing GARCH-family models, the Diebold-Yilmaz connectedness background, time-varying limit vector autoregression (TVP-VAR), and quantile-based spillover methods, the article synthesizes evidence on the direction, magnitude, and temporal evolution of cross-market volatility transmission. It further evaluates the crisis episodes of 2020 (the COVID-19 shock), 2022 (the Terra/Luna collapse and the FTX bankruptcy), and 2023 (the Silicon Valley Bank failure and the associated USDC depeg) as natural experiments in contagion. The article argues that spillover intensity is time-varying, asymmetric, and regime-dependent, rising sharply during periods of market stress and receding during calm periods, and that the safe-haven properties long attributed to Bitcoin have weakened as institutional adoption has deepened the integration of crypto assets with traditional finance. The article closes with a discussion of regulatory responses, including the European Union's Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework, and implications for portfolio risk management, financial stability surveillance, and future research.
Cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, Volatility Spillover, Financial Contagion, Connectedness, GARCH, TVP-VAR, Financial Stability, Safe-Haven Assets, Digital Asset Regulation
The Nexus between Terms of Trade Volatility and Output Growth Volatility: Evidence from Lower-Middle-Income Economies
Global economies are increasingly integrated through international trade, where favorable terms of trade determine the direction of nations towards sustainable economic growth. This study examines the nexus between volatilities in terms of trade and output growth for lower-middle-income countries. Using data for 12 low-middle-income nations, this study employs the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation technique. The empirical results of this study suggest positive association between terms of trade volatility and output volatility. To put it differently, terms of trade volatility lead to macroeconomic instability. Additionally, the introduction of institutional quality and its interaction with terms of trade volatility into the regression do not affect the findings of the study.
Terms of Trade Volatility, Output Volatility, Institutions, Generalized Method of Moments
Foreign Direct Investment in the Energy Sector: A Catalyst for Economic Growth in Emerging Economies (1975-2024): Evidence from the Pre- and Post-COVID-19 Periods
This comparative study examines the evolving relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) in the energy sector and economic growth in emerging economies, distinguishing between the pre-COVID-19 period (1975-2019) and post-COVID-19 period (2020-2024). Employing a comprehensive panel data framework with advanced econometric techniques including CS-ARDL, AMG, Westerlund cointegration, and Granger causality tests, the analysis reveals fundamental structural changes in the FDI-growth nexus. Most notably, FDI transitions from having no significant effect on growth in the pre-COVID period to demonstrating statistically significant positive effects in both the short-run (0.037, p=0.031) and long-run (0.042, p=0.041) in the post-COVID era. The analysis also reveals the emergence of cointegration, enhanced error-correction dynamics, and bidirectional FDI-GDP causality post-COVID. The energy sector consistently drives growth across both periods, though with evolving characteristics. These findings have profound implications for policy formulation in emerging economies seeking to harness FDI for sustainable development in the post-pandemic world. Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment, Energy Sector, Economic Growth, COVID-19, Emerging Economies, Structural Break, Panel Data Analysis.
Comparative Analysis of Dividend Policy between Islamic and Conventional Banking of Pakistan
Dividend policy remains a central issue in corporate finance because it reflects firms' financial strength, governance quality, and strategic capital allocation. Although Islamic banking has experienced substantial growth over the past two decades, limited evidence exists on whether the determinants of dividend policy differ systematically between Islamic and conventional banks operating within the same regulatory environment. This study investigates the financial determinants of dividend policy and compares dividend payout practices between Islamic and conventional banks in Pakistan's dual banking system. Using an unbalanced panel dataset of listed banks covering the period 2015 to 2025, the study employs panel data regression techniques to examine the effects of profitability, liquidity, leverage, and firm size on dividend payout decisions while controlling for bank-specific heterogeneity.The empirical findings indicate that profitability and firm size have positive and statistically significant effects on dividend payouts, suggesting that financially stronger and larger banks are more likely to distribute earnings to shareholders. Conversely, leverage exhibits a significant negative association with dividend policy, reflecting the preference of highly leveraged banks to retain earnings to meet financing obligations and regulatory capital requirements. Liquidity shows a positive but relatively modest influence on dividend distributions. The comparative analysis further reveals that Islamic banks follow more conservative dividend policies than conventional banks, consistent with Shariah governance principles, profit-and-loss sharing mechanisms, and prudent risk management practices. This study extends the literature by providing recent empirical evidence from an emerging economy with a dual banking system and offers a comparative assessment of dividend policy across Islamic and conventional banks. The findings provide practical implications for investors, bank managers, regulators, and policymakers in designing dividend strategies that support financial stability, shareholder value, and sustainable banking sector development.Derivatives, Structured Finance, Turnaround Costs, Financial Risk Management, Synthetic Leases, FX Hedging, Operational Liquidity, ISDA Framework. Keywords- Dividend Policy; Islamic Banks; Conventional Banks Panel Regression, Profitability, Financial Performance.
Linking Profitable Firms With Esg: Evidence From Asian Markets With The Capital Structure As A Moderator
This study provides empirical evidence on how financial performance influences ESG score by integrating the moderating role of capital structure. The study adopts a large panel dataset to determine the fixed firm and year effects for examining the impact of Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE) on the overall ESG and individual performance of environmental, social, and governance dimensions. Importantly, two interaction terms (CS* ROA and CS* ROE) are included to determine whether CS amplifies or dampens the relationship between FP and ESG. The empirical findings suggest that ROA is a persistent and effective predictor of the effect on overall performance, including social, economic, and governance dimensions, while ROE indicates variations across individual performance. The findings imply that ROA, as an operational profitability, is a consistent predictor compared to stakeholder-based returns. Additionally, CS strengthens the relationship between operational profitability and ESG compared to stakeholders' profit. Therefore, this study contributes to existing literature theoretically and practically by integrating a unified structure within the context of Asian economies. Lastly, this study provides implications and future direction for promoting sustainable corporate outcomes through effective financial performance. Keywords: Return on Assets, Return on Equity, Capital Structure, ESG practices, Panel Data.