Harnessing Solar Potential in Pakistan: A Review of Renewable Energy Policies and Future Prospects

Abstract

Pakistan's chronic energy crisis, marked by 20-hour load shedding and $22B annual fossil import bills, confronts unparalleled solar potential (5.3 kWh/m²/day average irradiation). This study evaluates renewable energy policies' efficacy in harnessing 50 GW economic capacity. Findings reveal explosive growth from 885 MW (2019) to 35 GW (2026)69% of generation capacity exceeding AREP 2019 targets by 142-1,420%. Distributed solar dominated (95% capacity): 6.2 GW net metered (1.42M prosumers) and 27.1 GW off grid driven by 2.4-year payback periods amid PKR 65/kWh tariffs.

AREP catalyzed transformation: net metering enabled 4.2M households GPI auctions secured 1 GW utility scale at PKR 5.5/kWh (47% furnace oil discount). Economic impacts crystallized: $22.5B import savings 1.75M jobs 50.1 MtCO₂ avoided annually. Technical excellence confirmed 79.8% performance ratios 1,780 kWh/kWp yields. Grid challenges emerged at 69% VRE penetration (780 MW/min ramps) demanding 4 GW storage by 2028.

Phase II requires net billing transition, agrivoltaics mandates and HVDC corridors to scale 100 GW by 2035, positioning Pakistan as South Asia's solar superpower.