The Impact of Gold Price on Unemployment: A Case Study of Pakistan (2000–2024)

Abstract

This study looks at the impact of gold prices on the unemployment rate in Pakistan using data from 2000 to 2024. By controlling for inflation, interest rates, and the official exchange rate, the study uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to check both long-run and short-run movements. The results show that a long-run cointegration relationship exists among the variables. The findings suggest that gold prices significantly increase unemployment in the long run. This is likely because investors move their money from productive businesses to safe assets like gold.

Keywords: Gold Price, Unemployment, Pakistan, ARDL, Exchange Rate.